There were such high hopes for the electric vehicle market, which is the problem with the share prices of EV stocks today. The outlook for EVs was and is robust, but the growth was priced in at the very start. Since then, EV companies failed to capture the growth or profits forecasted without cutting deeply into shareholder value. Many EV OEMs have relied heavily on dilutive actions and share price manipulation to keep themselves afloat and investors interested.
The critical takeaway for investors is that many EV companies have advanced the technology and/or established infrastructure with some value; the question is if the respective companies can unlock it. If history can be used as a guide, there are more bankruptcies on the way, but maybe not for everyone. Nikola is the latest to file for Chapter 11 protection and wipe out its shareholders; others may soon follow suit.
Mullen Automotive Gains Traction, Incrementally
Mullen Automotive (NASDAQ: MULN) appears to be gaining business traction, but the gains are incremental and offset by looming factors, including share dilution, revenue quality, and bankruptcy risk.
Regardless of other factors influencing real shareholder value, Mullen has reverse split its stock five times in two years and may do it again to keep the price up.
The takeaway is that shareholders from 2022 are looking at holding worth fractions of pennies on the dollar, and later buyers are only marginally better positioned.
The latest news includes company-sponsored sales, not dilutive sales, but a significant amount to be floated on an already-laden market. Short interest in this stock remains high and will likely push it back to sub-$1 price points in 2025.
Workhorse Group Is Approved for Sale in Canada, So What?
Workhorse Group (NASDAQ: WKHS) regained traction after its incredible business reorganization and refocusing. Now, its W750 and W56 electric vans are seeing improved demand, but new hurdles have arisen.
The latest news from the company is the approval of its vans for Canadian markets, a revenue stream impeded by Trump’s tariffs and geopolitical tension.
However, even with Canadian sales in the picture, the company is not expected to produce significant revenue for years, and investors face the dual headwinds of dwindling assets and rapidly rising share counts.
The company leaned hard into dilutive activity in 2024, lifting its share count by roughly 150% on average for Q4 and more than 100% for the year. The short interest in this stock is running near 20% in Q1.
Lucid Investors Have a Parachute, the PIF, But It Won’t Help Them
Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID) investors have a parachute with the PIF investing in the business, but it won’t help them. The likely outcome is dwindling capital reserves due to the expensive push to ramp production and launch new models, and the PIF will likely inject new capital.
Still, the increased ownership will squeeze average investors further out of the picture. The Saudi’s goal is to be a leader in EV use, production, and technology; all it may want is Lucid’s technology, which does not put investors in a good position.
Meanwhile, the company is undergoing a significant change as its CEO stepped down, taking an advisory position to the board, raising the question of what it will do next.
The short interest in LCID shares isn’t as high as MULN or LCID but sufficiently high to present a headwind for the market.
Rivian Is Best-Positioned But Still a Risky Investment
Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) is the best-positioned of North America’s EV OEM start-ups. It is ramping up production and inflecting to gross profitability in 2024.
The outlook for 2025 is for increased production, the launch of next-gen models, and improved profitability, although there are risks. The risks include the cost of ramping output and the balance sheet.
The company is capitalized now, but concerns remain that it may have to raise cash later this year or in early 2026. The analysts are optimistic, with coverage increasing, a firm Hold rating, and expectation for double-digit upside.
The bad news is that the price target revision trend is downward, with recent targets leading to the low-end range, and the short interest is high.
